ZeldaBlog

Move Over, Nostradamus!

December 30th, 2005 at 12:29 am by The Missing Link

Most people would believe that the experts on seeing into the future would be the fortune tellers in A Link to the Past or Ulrira from Link’s Awakening. However, players of the game who actually believe this melarchy are quite incorrect. It’s not that the fortune tellers and Ulrira don’t see in the future nor that they don’t do a particularly good job; no, they’re just what the doctor ordered when the warrior doesn’t know what to do next, and their advice about the future is worth its weight in rupees. The problem is, however, that they’re simply just not the best at it.

The true masters of the future and beyond are none other than the Bombers Gang. (Who’d you expect? Tingle?) The notebook that each of the Bombers carry is the proof in the pudding. Without their illustrious notebook, how else would Link have figured out just how to reunite Anju and Kafei? Just meeting someone told you whether or not that person needed help, even if they didn’t have the pride to say so, as well as precisely when he or she would need help. Even better, the Bomber’s knew about the upcoming destruction of Hyrule; their notebook had the next three days labelled “1st,” “2nd,” and “Final,” which tells us players that the Bombers Gang is a special cult for mediums and seers into the future. “There must have been some magic in that old notebook they found / for when they placed it in their hands, all the words just danced around.” (Sorry, I began writing this article well before Christmas, and I couldn’t pass up the chance to parody a carol! ;) )

We all know that 2006 is going to be an exciting year for the gaming community. The XBox 360 is already out, and we should be seeing Sony come out with the PS3 as well as Nintendo with the Revolution sometime this year. This year we’ll see the first anniversary of the new fight between the Nintendo DS and the Sony PSP. And there’s also the promise of Twilight Princess coming out, so us as Zelda fans should be really pleased.

So I couldn’t help myself. I loaded up Majora’s Mask again. I had to see what the Bombers had to say about 2006. Unfortunately, all their book said was stuff about Anju, the Rosa Sisters, and *shudder* ???. I went to go yell at the Bombers for the obvious oversight in their notebook, but all they wanted to do was use a peashooter to pop a balloon and play hide and seek. So maybe the Bombers aren’t that great. Who needs those jerks anyways? :P

So I made my own OMG SUPAR 1337 NOTBUK!!!!1111sixty and put down a list of predictions for the future.

I’m sure many of you will disagree with many of the things I’m going to go out on a limb with, and I realise that this post is very much speculation. Just take into account that I’m not as good as the Bombers are!

PS3

Yes, I know I’m talking about a non-Nintendo thing, but let’s face it; no matter how far removed Nintendo is from the competition, Sony and Microsoft affects what will happen with Nintendo. So…

  • In March, the PS3 should come out in Japan, achieving their expected launch date for spring 2006 (even though March is still mostly winter, but I won’t even get into that one).
  • Sometime in Q3, UMD sales will begin to fall. Yes, I know that so far 8.2 million UMDs have been bought since the PSP came out; when you compare that number with the 15 million DVDs the movie The Incredibles sold just in the first half of this year, not to mention the rest of the movies on that list in addition to that, I honestly do not think that UMD can continue being sold separately from DVDs, especially at the ridiculous price they’re being sold at not to mention the gradual reduction of cost of both DVD players and portable DVD players. (I got one for Christmas this year; it only cost $60 after rebate.) However, if Sony begins selling UMDs along with DVDs, even if it costs $5 more, then UMD will be able to do well.
  • Sometime in Q4, my guess is November, the PS3 will finally be released State-side. Unknown when it will hit Europe, but if they’re having a three-quarter difference in releasing it in Japan and the US… sorry, Europe. Looks like 2007 for you. As far as a price point, it would be smart for Sony to hit US$350, but I don’t think they can considering how much new hardware they’re floating; they would easily lose money on the console. (However, it’s been done before.) Look for it to be $400 at the very least, more likely $450. $500 is also a possibility, but I wouldn’t expect it to be more than that.

XBox 360

  • Q1 will see the 360 getting back on its feet after initial problems with manufacturing, distribution, and quality control. The 360 will be a hot item regardless of shortages and overheating problems, so don’t get your hopes up for Billy-boy going down just yet. Once version 1.1 comes out, what should have been the initial adoption wave in November and December will take place a few weeks afterwards. Sales will probably be down late in Q1 as the price will remain high after the “first wave” and well into the year.
  • Beginning in April, begin looking for signs of a second wave of gamers. Since the US$299 and $399 prices are pretty high, it’ll take a bit of time before the not-so-hardcore gamers adopt it.
  • If the end of Q2 is good for Microsoft, then Sony should be concerned; if the 360 isn’t adopted well, Sony will have a good future. Pretty much, this is the Go/No-Go gate for Microsoft and Sony. I believe that this generation will work a lot like the PS2/XBox generation; one will do extremely well, while the other will only do moderately well.
  • Look for Microsoft to drop the price of the XBox 360 by $20-50 when the PS3 comes out late in the year.

Revolution

  • Expect Nintendo to publish small tidbits of information in February or March. They need to keep the hype for Revolution high through Q1 since 360 is already in the marketplace. In fact, I would expect a better grasp of the release date and/or the final name to be revealed in this timeframe.
  • This one we know; in May, Nintendo is doing something exciting at E3, and they’re not telling us what. They’re pitching this well in advance, so who knows what’s up with it. We know that they’ll be promoting some super-secret feature about the Revolution. What that is, who knows?
  • Personally, I’m figuring that Nintendo might pull a fast one and go for a worldwide release of the Revolution come Q3. I would expect September, possibly October. They’ll already be behind Sony in Japan, but Nintendo is second there already, so that isn’t much of a threat; however, doing this would 1-up the PS3 here. If Nintendo did that and 360 does well, Sony could be in major trouble, especially if Revolution’s price point is low, especially considering this non-scientific poll. The lowest it could possibly be is US$100, but I don’t believe it will go for that. I predict $150 with a maximum of $200.

Nintendo DS

I’m not expecting anything major to happen to happen in DS-land, but I reckon we’ll get a couple of things going:

  • Come late Q1 or early Q2, I think you should expect to see a new colour DS come out. So far, we’ve got silver and blue along with aqua and red being part of package deals. I’d jump out and guess that we’ll see a forest green one, but considering the colours they choose tend to be colours I don’t want, maybe we’ll see orange or yellow!
  • I think by the end of Q4, the DS will experience an advent in gaming. I think you’ll start getting a good number of heavy-hitting RPGs for the DS, and I’d also look for a lot of online Wi-fi games to come out as well. I think DS will enjoy a great Christmas season.

The Legend of Zelda

  • We’re still in limbo on a date, it seems. I expect this to be banished early this year. Expect by the end of February to hear a final release date (or at least a target month) for Twilight Princess.
  • When do I think it’s going to come out? April or May. Reggie is saying April, but I think there’s a chance that they’ll hit after E3 since they can generate a lot of easy hype at the conference. As usual, the price will be the standard game price, US$50.
  • At E3, expect to hear something about the next Zelda game after Twilight. My hunch is that it will be for the DS. Expect them to be mum about a Zelda for Revolution.
  • If they announce a Zelda for the DS at E3, I reckon a good release date for it would be November or December.

Tingle

You might notice that everyone’s favourite evil “Sith Lord” doesn’t have anything scheduled for this year. That’s because I’m predicting that Twilight Princess will not have Tingle anywhere within it. I also don’t expect to see the Tingle RPG released State-side; that’ll be a Japan exclusive. Now they may include Tingle on a DS title, and I’d give the odds about 50-50, but being that I’m wary about that even coming out in ‘06, well… we’ll see…

Filed under Twilight Princess, Editorials, Nintendo, Phantom Hourglass

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27 Messages from the Gossip Stones about “Move Over, Nostradamus!”

    Comments

    I always wondered how the Gang knew when everything was going to happen…

    Rather interesting timeline, and it looks very plausable. The only point I disagree on is the possibility of a DS Zelda game. ‘Round my neck of the woods, only 1 person has a DS. It doesn’t seem to be a popular system, with its only “games” seeming to be more like tech-demos. I don’t see enough of a market for a Zelda-DS. I could be wrong though. Who knows…the powers-that-be may decide to bring the Tingle RPG to the DS here in the states. I’m sure out of the 10 people who own and play a DS regularly, 1 will want the game…

    P.S. TO anyone who DOES own a DS…Congratulations, I didn’t even know you existed. :-)

    The Nintendo DS is the fastest selling game system ever as far as Japan sales go, selling over 5 million overseas in the span of a year. (Source: Reuters) So I would disagree, jivjov.

    Sure, the GBA:SP is more prevalent, but the DS is slowly taking over the market.

    Kudos for the cute observation about the fortune tellers, TML ;)

    I keep wondering if Sony will take a cut in price to get their PS3 out there & “affordable,” like it’s being reported about Microsoft’s 360. …Although, I couldn’t help but wonder if that figure was right when I saw that this morning. -Bah, I’m not going to spend time worrying about that though. I just want to see some good systems and good competition :) Can’t wait till it all unfolds.

    Slightly off subject: I know about 10 people with a DS, including myself… of course, I think we all have 360’s too- So maybe we’re just a tiny part of the “gotta have it” market. WarioWare does seem to make it worth it though.

    The Missing Link said:

    The Nintendo DS is the fastest selling game system ever as far as Japan sales go, selling over 5 million overseas in the span of a year. (Source: Reuters) So I would disagree, jivjov.

    Sure, the GBA:SP is more prevalent, but the DS is slowly taking over the market.

    I though DS selling more than the PSP…

    Babygurl said:

    Wait….thats werid. I thought the game was coming out in April or March but that boy had the pc version of the game. ????
    I SHOULD HAVE BOUGHT IT!!!! Anyhoo, it had a picture of link on it and it said the title on it. THIS IS WERID!!! Someone solve this unknown mystery for me.

    That guy is probably just faking that its TP…. or its a bootleg demo thingy.

    Thats what ive always liked about Nintendo they give us a fair price for new Consoles (Except games come on £45 for a game give me a break, and Turok on N64 for £70 WTF) anyway I predict that the Revolution will be £200 at most.

    BTW I dont know the exchange rate between the £ and the $ so if you dont understand then… sorry i guess, lol

    Interesting article. I agree with most of your points.

    I really am doubtful about a march release of the PS3 in Japan or anywhere else. There has been absolutely zero news for it, no playable games, and the controller isn’t even finished. I know that Sony is sticking to its story of a worldwide spring release, but in my opinion, that is nothing more than an attempt to keep people from buying an xbox360 just yet. And yeah; I’m pretty scared in anticipation of the price.

    Your predictions about the 360 are all dead-on; especially the price drop prediction. Microsoft rushed to get that thing out, and they paid for it. But, yeah; they aren’t exactly ready to bite the big one…yet.

    There is almost no doubt about a october/november release for the revolution. It’s pretty easy to figure that we’ll finally get some playable games at E3 2006. However, I think it’s highly unlikely that the Revolution could ever pose a threat to the PS3, no matter when it’s released, or what the price. A $99 dollar price tag hasn’t done much for the GameCube. All the many PS2 owners will simply make the upgrade to PS3, and that alone will tip the scales in Sony’s favor.

    I personally believe that Nintendo will unveil Zelda DS during E3 2006. It’s already been “announced,” so we know that it will be unveiled at one point or another…so E3 2k6 seems like a good time.

    I guess now all we have to do is wait…..

    Robert-UK said:

    BTW I dont know the exchange rate between the £ and the $ so if you dont understand then… sorry i guess, lol

    I use this for my conversions. As of right now, $1.00 = 0.58£ = 0.85€ = 118¥.

    Legend of Link said:

    I though DS selling more than the PSP…

    It is. Read my quote: I was talking about the GBA:SP, not the PSP.

    Sephiroth_one said:

    I really am doubtful about a march release of the PS3 in Japan or anywhere else. There has been absolutely zero news for it, no playable games, and the controller isn’t even finished. I know that Sony is sticking to its story of a worldwide spring release, but in my opinion, that is nothing more than an attempt to keep people from buying an xbox360 just yet. And yeah; I’m pretty scared in anticipation of the price.

    The link I posted about the PS3 being launched State-side in November has the quote I’m using for that. The article is an interview with Howard Stringer, who is one of the bigwigs at Sony Corp. While you are correct that we’ve heard precious little about the PS3 as of yet, we’re getting down to the three-month window between here and March, and usually within that window, companies tend to be keep to their dates. If they are advertising that and they change it come January, it’s a foolish move.

    Sephiroth_one said:

    However, I think it’s highly unlikely that the Revolution could ever pose a threat to the PS3, no matter when it’s released, or what the price. A $99 dollar price tag hasn’t done much for the GameCube. All the many PS2 owners will simply make the upgrade to PS3, and that alone will tip the scales in Sony’s favor.

    The $99 price tag hasn’t helped the ‘Cube primarily because of a lot of bad karma people have with the ‘Cube. “It’s kiddy.” “It has Pokémon.” “It’s not mature.” (Which is hogwash.) Revolution has a lot better PR campaign running than the ‘Cube, and all the polls I’ve seen (you’re welcome to point me to one that disagrees) have shown more hype for the Revolution than with the PS3.

    Part of the reason that I think Sony is in trouble is because of the high prices of consoles. Imagine for a moment that the PS3 is a $450 system. To own both the (good) 360 and a PS3, that’s sinking $850 into hardware alone, not including software atop of that (which 360 stuff is starting at $60, not $50, a game). That’s a high investment cost! So people who do get both are going to stagger their purchases, and if people adopt the 360 early, they won’t adopt the PS3 until late. (The same is true vice versa.)

    Nintendo being cheap helps solidify the winner between the two. You can now buy two consoles for little over the price of one, and that will serve to alienate the third console. If the polls are good, many will buy the Revolution, and they’ll buy it before they buy BOTH the PS3 and the 360. The two factors working together could severely hurt Sony. If everyone buys a 360… and then people spend their initial PS3 savings on a Revolution, it’s just $150 (or so) more to get the last of the consoles. Sure, there’s a lot of if’s involved in this, and there are some big if’s. (I mean, yes, I know there are PlayStation fanboys and girls out there who will skew logic.) But very soon, within months, Sony has got to come out with something to stop 360 from being adopted. I think waiting until E³ to do that is too late to start.

    Well, that Tetra Trackers game, or whatever the title was, was never realsed state side, either…I think nintendo should release those “speical” Zelda-based games in the States….they’d get a lot of sales…I mean…I hate Tingle…I REALLY hate Tingle, but…I would buy the game anyway because it’s Zelda based and…I’m a bit curious about it… You know what they say…”Curiosity killed the cat”…And mom says my cat and I are very alike, so…yeah. I’d buy the games if they were realeased state side…I save up all of my christmas and Birthday money each year for new nintendo systems/Zelda games… Still, TML, your predictions could very well be the most accurate I’ve heard so far… You have got to be the most well informed person I know, Boss.

    very good predictions, TML. I’ve been hearing that there will be a Zelda for the DS, but no news for the Revolution. Cross your fingers!

    Yeah, I worry for Sony as well. They only won with Playstation 2, because of Nintendo’s bad luck with N64, and slow release of GCN. Nintendo has always been a strong company, and will inevitably strike back at Playstation. Microsoft is doing pretty good, and they have strong games to boot. I think Microsoft will destroy playstion the same way Nintendo Destroyed Sega.

    Yeah, Tingle probably won’t be in Twilight Princess, especially after that huge monopoly he made off us in Wind Waker, but I think he will be in the DS Zelda game. I’m still deciding whether or not I want it to be in 3D or 2D… Still, Nintendo’s pobably already gotten it figured it out.

    Yeah. As long as they play their cards right, I don’t think Nintendo should have too much to be concerned about. So far, Rev is the only next-gen that can be considered worthy of being called “next-gen.” But who knows? Sony might come up with something that would make their PS3 worthy of being called “next-gen.”

    I just decided not to go through the posts, but I like to say, PtL that the Tingle RPG will never come here.

    Don’t you think that the reason the bombers know about the future is the astronomer. He might be able to read the stars to tell the future and the reason he he might know there’s only three days left is he could have looked at the moon through his telescope and recorded the speed it was going and figured out there was only three days untill it hit the earth. And the bombers are friends with the astronomer so he told them and they put it in their bombers book.

    Hehe, I just did a replay through MM too. I love the “OMG SUPAR 1337 NOTBUK” you made TML. That is one quality image.

    I’m not too up on the state of “next gen” but your predictions seem spot on. I think a big factor right now is the quantity of “phantom” software for ‘06. There are definately games for all the major hardware players(espsically Rev and PS3) that exist, but that we don’t know of them yet.

    On Zelda, I’m going to put my bet with the “after E3″ end of the spectrum. If the release date is close enough to E3(I consider April close), they’ll just delay for hype.

    Though it’s unlikely, I think we may still see Zelda Rev at E3, if it can be related to TP’s Forward compatibility(maybe the forward compatibility includes a Zelda Rev demo)…if forward compatibility exists. All depends how far along Rev software is, which is that software question again.

    • 16. Rob says:

    HaHa! I knew that the Bombers Gang had something to hide! Hmm… Though I do not think that Microsoft and Sony really have an impact on Nintendo, however… Since Nintendo makes its own decisions on things (hence TP delay).

    Babygurl, don’t spam. :P

    [TML: I warned you once. This is your warning twice. DO NOT SPAM HERE. I will not tolerate it. Aside from my interruption the previous time and the deleted comments, you have posted SIX times in a row, which is in clear violation of Rules #2 and #3. If you keep this up, I will delete your account.

    As far as a bootleg copy of Twilight, I highly doubt it since it isn’t even out. Furthermore, there would NOT be a PC copy of it considering that they don’t develop on a computer nor do they compile for a computer; all development is done on a ‘Cube. The only way for them to do it would be to have a disc-dump of the code for an emulator, and guess what, Twilight shouldn’t fit on a single disc. So no, I’m not going to write an article in a panic off something I not only don’t believe on technical and practical merits, but much more something based on hearsay.]

    Off subject: TML does have a point, we are spamming, and when I give out the 50th posts award, no-one needs to make a big deal about it, so we can get back to subject and save all the posts for the real subject.
    Back to Subject: So which is higher (i’ve been to lazy to read through the posts in this subject) in sales, Sony, or Nintendo?And another thing, about the X-boxes, I don’t trust them, I heard that the original caused some fires, so I don’t trust them

    ^ I’m willing to let some rules slide some of the time; there are just certain times when TML has to enforce the law.

    As far as Sony and Nintendo go, DS is kicking PSP’s butt; Japan sales figures are about 5M for the DS with 2.5M for the PSP, and the DS I think has done better State-side too. Granted, the PS2 whooped the ‘Cube, but technically the GBA outsold the PS2. But little of this matters since they’re not going head to head in Round 6; the two can easily coexist this time around, Revolution and PS3. Nintendo just is there to drive a wedge between Microsoft and Sony.

    And I doubt that many 360s caused fires. Yes, there have been overheating problems, but so too have laptops. I’m still of the opinion that $400 is way too expensive for a console system, even if it did have games that I wanted to play.

    Well TML, about a spring release for the PS3, I’ll believe it when I see it. The main reason is this: There has been no playable software whatsoever. There have been some trailers and tech demos, (killzone, Final Fantasy VII,) but nothing playable. Three months is not enough time. The plain fact is that Sony may not be able to counter the 360 right now; they’re just going to have to wait, and rely on the many playstation fanboys. (And girls)

    Yes, it would be foolish for Sony to delay, but the fact remains that they can.

    And as for Nintendo, well…

    It was more than Karma that killed the cube. The GameCube simply didn’t have the software support. 2005 in particular has been a horrid year for it, with precious few releases standing out. (Resident Evil 4). Nintendo has suffered from little to no third-party support, and a definite lack in certain genres. (RPG’s come to mind.) Problems like this are far more devastating than the people who dub it “kiddy”. (Which I agree is a total crock.) At this point, it’s hard to say whether or not Nintendo will learn from their mistakes and do better with the Revolution. But they definitely should, or else I fear that the Revolution will fare even worse.

    Another thing is this: just because a PS3 is too expensive, that doesn’t necessarily mean that people will flock to the Revolution and forget the PS3. And keep in mind the fact that we haven’t heard an official price for either of the systems, so it’s a little too soon to speak.

    Not trying to start an argument. Just a politeful disagreement. (Heheheh)

    Sephiroth_one is up to something.Just kidding around.Spehiroth does have a point, there wasn’t too many games out this year, YET we’re awaiting New Year, a new year of new games, new consoles, new ASSAs, new ways for Ruto getting Link, and new ways of beating up Tingle like a pinata (spiked club or wine bottle) whatever, we should celebrate New Years (we need all the luck we can muster) so I’ll see you guys next year, and from your comedian-in-training, HAPPY NEW YEARS, and thankyou for shopping at your local Wal-Mart.

    Sephiroth_one said:

    At this point, it’s hard to say whether or not Nintendo will learn from their mistakes and do better with the Revolution. But they definitely should, or else I fear that the Revolution will fare even worse.

    It all inevitably comes down to games, you’re right. However, considering that they’ve got a lot of developers interested in the hardware they’re floating as a controller… and the fact that it would be the most logical control style for an FPS, I think that might open the door for more mature content… thus courting more of the older gamers croud. Inevitably, if the experience that you can get from the Revolution is what gamers want… and is worth the $150 or so investment cost, Nintendo will do well. A lot of if’s, but the chances remain promising.

    Don’t forget that technology costs tend to go down, so eventually, the Revolution, PS3, X Box 360, and any other future consoles will soon go down, becomeing more affordable and stuff, but the Revolution would be cool, no wires to hold you back, handling the controller like a bow, shooting into some poor moblin’s skull or something, this would be a good console.Oh well, I’m sticking to my GameCude, and GBA SP, BUT, I’ll still get LoZ:TP, when it comes out.

    What bugs me about a lot of people here in the UK is that all they want to play is “Grand Theft Auto” and sports games like “Fifa World Cup” while genuine classics like “Ico”, “Shadow of the Colosus”, “Zelda”, “Soul Reaver”, “Tales of Symphonia” and “Final Fantasy” are ignored, most people over here dont know the meaning of the word originality *sigh* oh well theres not much I can do about it.

    BTW TML thanks for the link about Exchange Rates it was a big help.

    I’ll congratulate you on your predictions, TML, if they come true. ;)

    Forget “Nostradamus” and the “Bomber Gang ” for TML is the ultimate Seer.